Education
Return of News-Driven Volatility

For several recent weeks, the stock market has been rather docile, with few outsized gains or losses. That pattern was suddenly broken in response to military action occurring far from home. While Iranians were asleep at the wheel, and Israel was on high alert, on a recent Saturday morning, we (jointly with Israel) decimated layers of Iranian “leadership.”
Financial markets detest uncertainty, and nothing projects uncertainty better than huge black clouds billowing upward where occupied buildings stood scant minutes before. Black smoke columns became especially evident on the otherwise cloudless horizon when recent attacks in Iran took place. The carefully timed (I believe) Saturday attack minimized reaction on our Stock Exchanges. Fortunately, traders did not “freak out,” and the first two trading sessions revealed very little panic selling. In fact, Wednesday turned in a solid green market performance and appeared to set the table for a minimal weekly decline. Thursday and Friday did produce a mild sell-off, and major market indices were down modestly for the week.
Where we go from here is anybody’s guess, and I expect more volatility. For frequent traders, there is money to be made during volatile times, but those frequent traders have to be correct in stock picking and timing.
For long-term investors, history tells us that patience is a virtue. There is more to riding out volatile times than merely “buy and hold.” We leave the speculators to trade their individual stock choices in a rough market. Our game plan is (always) to diversify, diversify, diversify. Rather than making bets on individual stocks, we prefer holding Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), mutual funds, Sector Funds, and index shares.
Thoroughly diversified portfolios are certain to include market losers in tumultuous times, but in the mix of shares will be winners as well. We want to own the winners, without having to determine (guess) which issues will become new Wall Street darlings. We diversify holdings to avoid having to guess.
Some investors look at a diversified portfolio as “going nowhere.” Some parts up, others down, and overall, results can often be relatively boring. We know that minimizing losses during volatile periods in the market makes the inevitable recovery period more profitable. Diversifying our portfolios provides a measure of stability during down and/or uncertain times.
Volatility is likely to remain high until a true settlement is reached in the Middle East. Since that day is unpredictable (at best), we’ll handle the ups and downs by exercising the fundamental principle of diversifying assets. This, too, will pass, preferably sooner rather than later. Good times will return, and we’ll be ready for the inevitable rising tide in our markets.