Inflation is generally portrayed as the rate by which prices increase over time. The U.S. Government measures the level of prices over time using the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. While there are several versions of the CPI, the most common measurement reports prices for “all urban consumers.” For years I have examined the truth and fiction of reporting on the topic of inflation. For as many years, I have known that we are being lied to by our so-called “leaders,” who consistently understate price level increases.

We have all seen inflation in action. Perhaps the most obvious day-to-day evidence is found at the grocery store, where prices have been rising steeply for years. Not only that, containers are getting smaller, and many are not filled to the top. “Shrinkflation” is the new word for reduced quantities of cereal, coffee, and various other household staples on the shelves. On the topic of food, have you checked out restaurant prices lately?

Inflation doesn’t stop there. Pay your health insurance premiums; check the increases in your deductibles and out-of-pocket medical expenses. Pay your homeowner’s insurance premium; what was it two years ago? Fill up your gas tank and check the numbers. Buy dog food, pay tuition bills, go to a movie, pay your cable TV and Internet services; they have gone up, and many by a LOT! Wages and salaries have not kept pace. Social Security recipients have been denied any COLA increase three times since 2010, with only small increases in other years.

Simply put, inflation is on the rise. In order to understand why, we need to look at the real definition of inflation. Nobel Laureate economist Milton Friedman said it best: “[Inflation is] always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” By this definition, rising prices are a symptom of inflation, or a result of inflation, rather than the definition of inflation.

Placing more money in circulation without proportionate increases in GDP results in less actual value per dollar. That is the true definition of inflation. Government printing presses have been running overtime for years. That encompasses both the physical printing press, plus the more clandestine electronic-entry money creator called the Federal Reserve.

Why does the government obfuscate truth with statistics? Simple; there would be an accelerating budget deficit and national debt if they acknowledged the truth in the CPI. Federal salaries and benefits, Social Security, indexed pensions, labor contracts, you name it – all are indexed to the CPI for annual Cost-of-Living (COLA) raises.

Today, the government has actually done something about it. Unfortunately for those of us who are collecting Social Security benefits, they “fixed it” on our nickel. Ushered in with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is a concept called the “Chained CPI.” This measurement, which is used to calculate the annual COLA, takes into account human behavior.

The “Chained CPI” is explained like this. If steak gets too expensive, consumers will switch to hamburger. So, the Labor Department admits that we are rational, responsible citizens, who balance our personal budgets. Too bad they force us to do so by reducing our standard of living. What’s next, hamburger gets so expensive that we switch to Helper?

Financial expert Ed Butowsky developed his own method of price change measurement. Dubbed the Chapwood Index, after his investment firm, this index measures prices of things we all buy, city by city, over time. Butowsky compares the same items over time, so all comparisons are valid and weighted consistently.

Jacksonville is one of 50 cities used to track the Chapwood Index. The results are startling, but easy to believe, as they mirror what we all see day-to-day.

For last year (2017), the Chapwood Index for Jacksonville increased 8.6%, and for 5 years it averaged 8.1% annually. That’s a far cry from the approximately 2% reported by the government.

By comparison, higher cost cities have increased even more. For example, San Francisco was up 12.8% last year, and New York City increased 11.2%. If you believe these numbers, as I do, you can probably imagine the damage that is being inflicted on Middle Class Americans, from rising prices and relatively stagnant wages. It is just plain wrong.

What does all this mean to today’s investors? I contend that the true rate of inflation is being masked, but I am not here to teach a class in economics. My interest lies in developing an investment strategy that reflects changing conditions around us, including inflation. What are the investment assets that respond positively to inflation? How should we purchase and hold those investments?

Understanding inflation can help investors cope with the declining standard of living experienced by far too many older Americans. If you need help with inflation planning, use a qualified fee-only CFP®. We can help direct you through the planning and investing process.

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For years, politicians across the spectrum have touted “tax simplification” as one of their reform goals. Many have gone so far as to claim that most Americans should be able to file their annual tax returns “on a postcard.” For just as many years, I have laughed in their faces, but now they claim we will be able to do exactly that next year. I decided to grade myself on the various negative predictions I made about the possibility of a shortened Form 1040 resulting in tax simplification.

While nothing is finalized yet, a preliminary draft was released this past week, and today we are taking a look at the veracity of this “postcard tax form” concept. One of my first questions was, very simply, “People still file paper returns?” For years IRS has been encouraging Americans to file their annual obligations electronically, and most of us do exactly that. File size has become pretty much irrelevant. Complexity is what (still) matters.

For those taxpayers who still send paper returns to the IRS, my next question is simple; “Do you want to file your 1040 in an envelope, or would you rather let the world see your name, address, Social Security Number, and signature?” So, is a postcard placed in an envelope still a postcard?

What will filers of the new 2018 Form 1040 actually find? The 1040 itself, which is currently 2 pages long and single-sided, will next year be a 2-sided form, ½-page large. More than half of the current 78 line items on today’s 1040 are being cut for 2018. A good start, perhaps?

At this point, it may help to remember two changes from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. First, the new Standard Deduction is large enough that many people who were previously itemizing deductions will no longer do so. However, we also discovered that the 2017 changes actually increased complexity for taxpayers who are not able (for whatever reason) to use the new shorter Form 1040.

In Congressional zeal to make the new 1040 Form fit on a half-page, certain items were deleted from the form. These include a few so-called “above the line” deductions such as student loan interest and teaching supplies. What if you are able to claim any of these reductions to income? Not to worry, there are six additional accompanying worksheets, some or all of which you will also have to stuff into your envelope.

But wait – we’re not done yet. What about other forms of income besides wages, salaries & tips, Social Security benefits, interest, dividends, and retirement income? Never fear, there are supplementary forms and schedules for those, as well. The envelope is getting thicker.

What other items will require further forms to be filed? These include:

  • Business income
  • Capital Gains
  • Sub-S business income
  • Sole proprietorship income
  • Partnership income
  • Child care tax credits
  • Retirement savings tax credits
  • Retirement savings contributions

The new form is intended to replace the existing 1040, the 1040A, and the 1040EZ. That, in itself, does nothing to reduce complexity. Further, more taxpayers are expected to file paper returns for tax year 2018, delaying their refunds and increasing costs to the IRS (taxpayers).

What is the bottom line on my prognostications? First, I gave myself a B+ for calling the “postcard form” mostly smoke and mirrors. For taxpayers with uncomplicated financial situations, many will be able to use the new Form 1040 and claim the higher Standard Deduction. That, however, was brought to you by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, not through the form redesign. In short, I fail to see any benefit from the alleged “postcard-sized tax form.”

Come to think of it, I should change my grade to A-.

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Twenty years ago, California became the first state to legalize medical marijuana. From that foothold, despite being illegal at a federal level, the marijuana industry is working to become part of mainstream America. Because of the potential profits involved, it won’t be long before the industry is a part of Wall Street, too. The industry got a major boost in 2012 when Colorado and Washington both legalized marijuana for recreational use. Many people anticipate the market to grow exponentially with the pending legalization in Canada and even across the United States.

Even with 29 states legalizing medical use and 9 states legalizing recreational use, there is still a cloud hanging over the industry. Current federal laws make marijuana a class I drug, which is the same class as heroin, LSD, and cocaine. The federal government could decide to crack down on marijuana at any time, over-riding the state laws. The tax law also potentially prevents expenses incurred while participating in illegal activity from being deducted on taxes. This means that legal marijuana companies may get taxed on their income rather than their profits, resulting in higher effective tax rates. All of these factors hinder companies from being publicly traded, causing them to be sold as Over-the-Counter stocks, or penny stocks.

Still, even with all these hurdles, the marijuana market keeps forcing its way into the spotlight. From the creation of an index to track the North American marijuana industry to the first marijuana ETF to be included on the NYSE this year, the marijuana market is letting everyone know it’s here to stay. You may wonder what the best way to invest in this growing market is, and that is a great question for your registered CFP®. We aren’t ready to dive into this fledgling industry just yet, but it is very much on our radar. Don’t forget to tune into the Van Wie Financial Hour every Saturday at 10am to hear about more about this and other potential growth areas of our economy.

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Recent market volatility has been blamed on worries about President Trump’s proposed trade and tariff policies. That does appear to be an unsettling factor, but should that be happening? Truth is one thing, but logic and reason don’t always comprise the whole and complete truth. In my opinion, the market is overlooking common sense realities.

The first reality is the economy in general, which by virtually all metrics is in a period of stellar performance. To paraphrase “noted economist” Al Gore in the 2000 election cycle, “Everything that should be up is up, and everything that should be down is down.” GDP is up, unemployment is down, corporate earnings are up, wages are up, taxes are down, optimism is high, and investment is strong. That is a formula for an excellent stock market.

Why is the tariff discussion overriding all the economic data? There are a couple reasons, including historical legacy. Tariffs have been found to be mostly ineffective, and even destructive, in past generations. One classic example is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act from the 1930’s. It was a general and comprehensive protectionist tariff on everything we imported, and the results quickly proved to be negative, so the Act was repealed.

Did the death of the broad tariff bill result in free trade? Not by a long shot! In the intervening years, dozens of trade acts have been passed, resulting in about 12,000 tariffs that we currently impose on imports. This means that Americans pay more for all these imported goods. Who reaps the rewards? The Federal Government, which collects the tariff revenue. Who loses? American consumers, who lose by having to pay these taxes in the form of higher prices.

Interested to know what imported goods are taxed by the US Government? Here are just a small handful: brooms, cotton shirt fabric, chocolate, milk and cream, sugar of all types, avocados, peanuts, tobacco, T-shirts, ice cream, hotel/restaurant/kitchenware items, beef, tomato sauces, etc.

Similarly, our exports are frequently taxed by the receiving countries, and largely the tariffs (taxes) are higher on our exports than those on similar imported goods entering our country. A classic example is the 275% tax levied on dairy products we send to Canada. This hurts our dairy farmers by making their products unaffordable to Canadians.

I will be the first to defend free trade advocates who have a problem with Trump’s policies and actions, insofar as they desire a system of truly free and fair trade. The only acceptable tariffs, with the exception of countries whose governments are subsidizing their industries, are no tariffs in either direction. That is not the situation we are in today.

We elected a President on his policy positions, not the least of which was to correct bad trade agreements. Why not give him a chance? In Trump’s own words, “What the hell do you have to lose?” The stock market is acting like a petulant child. Try to ignore it in favor of the economics. The art of this deal is in its infancy.

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The year was 1974, the place was Racine, Wisconsin, and I remember like it happened yesterday. Having spent a couple years working in corporate America right after getting married, I was entering into the world of independent consulting. Self-employment. One could reasonably surmise that I was too inexperienced and naive to understand the potential pitfalls.

We were young, ambitious, and seeking an opportunity for a brighter future, which included having a family. Self-employment was risky compared to corporate life, but we were aggressive and confident, so we took the plunge.

Fortunately, Sarah was teaching in the public-school system, and was covered by a large group insurance policy. When child number one came along (you know him today as Adam), our medical expenses were largely covered. Then, Sarah and I made the “big decision” to raise our children at home, by and with their parents. No more school district health insurance coverage once employment stopped.

In 1976, everyone had health insurance, right? Not so much for the self-employed, it turned out. Bye-Bye, group insurance. That constituted both a problem and a learning opportunity. Certainly, it would be easy to join some small or medium size insurance-buying group, right?

No! Small group coverage was not available to someone who, like me, was a one-person business, so we became advocates for change in the insurance industry. Only after a long learning curve did we conclude that this was not an insurance industry problem, but rather a problem in the law. This situation was a catalyst for my lifelong study of personal financial planning. For decades we advocated for Congress to figure out how to allow individuals and small businesses to form groups for health insurance coverage. These groups should be able to be formed across state lines if necessary. Congress and several Presidents continually turned a deaf ear to the problem.

We both reached Medicare age prior to our dream coming true, but I am pleased to report that the Administration has at long last taken a giant step toward solving the problem. President Trump signed an Executive Order in October, 2017, and the Labor Department recently finalized sweeping reforms in the group insurance arena. Now, people who are self-employed, and people in very small businesses who have some common thread, are able to band together in groups to buy health insurance at group rates, and even across state lines.

“Association Health Plans,” or AHPs, are expected to improve insurance options for small businesses and individuals, creating buying power through pure group size. AHPs are expected to affect 4 million Americans, saving thousands of dollars each, while improving coverages.

The fundamentals of insurance include the basic premise of risk sharing. The fundamentals of capitalism include the basic premise that competition is good. Pooling risk among more and more people lessens overall cost by lessening individual risk. There truly is strength in numbers, and nowhere is that more accurate than in the world of insurance. Larger groups result in lower rates per group member. Similarly, more potential insurance carriers competing for the small business market lessens cost. How simple can it get?

Without complaining how long it took to get here, I am thrilled by the announcement, though it is too late for me to take advantage of the new rules. Most job creation in this country takes place in small business. Over the past several years, more businesses failed than were created. Resultant job losses served no one very well and added to the uninsured rolls. Expect that situation to improve.

On a final note, creation of AHPs is expected to further weaken ObamaCare. That is good news.

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Estate Planning is a topic that frequently makes people fall asleep, so please curb the urge for a moment. First, let’s answer that question, “Do you need a Will?”

Yes.

There, all done, right?

Probably not, because the odds are not favorable for you having a Will at all, much less an up-to-date document. Here is the sad news; 6-in-10 Americans have neither a Will nor a Trust. It is not, however, only older people who die. It can happen to anyone, as you can easily read on the life expectancy tables produced by the life insurance industry. Why take the chance?

Young people have a tendency to avoid the issue, because they have no significant assets (in their own minds, that is). Listen up, young people. You go online to Social Media, do you not? Once you do, you now have a Digital Estate. What would you like done with it when you are gone?

Let’s start easy – “nobody has nothing,” which perhaps sounds like poor grammar, but it makes my point. You most likely have a Facebook page, and probably others to supplement that. Most of us have far more personal digital content “out there” than simply social media. How about passwords for items such as:

  • Bank accounts
  • Investment accounts
  • Credit cards
  • Medical records
  • Social Security
  • Personal emails
  • Business emails
  • Amazon Prime
  • Insurance records
  • Subscriptions

We simply take these items for granted, with easy access pretty much any time or place. So, what happens when we pass away? Our records still exist, which in its own right could be a problem. Does anyone really believe that an identity thief really cares about your continued ability to fog a mirror?

Further, how will our loved ones and/or heirs access these records? Do you want them deleted or preserved, or a combination? Recently, estate planners have addressed these situations, and we are seeing these clauses in new documents. If your Wills, Trusts, etc., are more than a couple years old, these items were most likely not addressed.

The discussion of death and dying is never pleasant, but as financial planners, we must, and do, deal with these topics with our clients. We all have to face our own mortality.

After all, your life’s work, financially speaking, is your estate. Take care of more than your money! Direct your digital asset disposition, your monetary asset distribution, your family relationships and responsibilities, and your identity, whether dead or alive. And here is one more sage piece of advice:

Listen to theVan Wie Financial Hour each and every Saturday on WBOB.

Van Wie Financial is fee-only. For a reason.

Lately I have been amusing myself by looking back into my radio show archives, with the intention to see how times have changed. Not knowing an answer prior to researching a question is mentally stimulating. This next paragraph was written (by me) nearly 2 years ago:

September 11, 2016, 6:30 A.M. It was 15 years ago the world as we knew it changed forever. At least I wish it were forever. I remember where I was, and if you are old enough to be listening to this show, I’ll pretty much guarantee that you do, too.

What did we learn from this, and what should we learn from the time since? Remembering that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is currently above 25,000, let’s look back and see:

  • On 9/10/2001 the DJIA closed at 9,605
  • That was the last number recorded that week, as the market failed to open the next day, and for another week thereafter
  • When it did open, the DJIA fell to 8,920, for a drop of over 7%
  • On December 19, 2001, a mere 99 days later, the DJIA crossed the 10,000 mark, up about 12% from the Post-9/11 low mark
  • A year later, the DJIA was back down to approximately crisis level
  • For the next 4 years, the index was higher every 9/11 than the year before
  • Then came the 2007 financial crisis, and the DJIA dipped all the way down to the mid-6,000s
  • In March of 2009 the index started to recover
  • Now, we are up over 150% from there, despite the recent correction (remember, this was written in 2016)

That was less than 2 years ago, and look at the market now! The point I am trying to make is easy; stay in the market for the long haul, and you should be fine. However, following that advice is not necessarily as easy as giving that advice, though history shows this to be true. Reacting to short-term events has never been profitable in the long run. Based on history, our capitalistic system fosters a strong and growing economy.

Today, with the DJIA having crossed over the 25,000 mark once again, we are still below the market high of early 2018, but those highs seem to be once again in sight. Faring even better is the NASDAQ, which is currently reaching new highs. Yet, if you pay attention to the various news media, you might think that our country is in a world of hurt.

Back in 2009, I did a radio piece entitled, “Consider the Source.” Things you hear are sourced by people who have varied agendas. Some are pushing a political point of view, others are selling newsletters, and still others may be hawking annuities. These people often use Fear and Greed to drive short-term news cycles, but the markets are affected in the long-term by economics.

Getting a dose of unbiased news through our radio show each and every week can help stabilize the urges we sometimes get to react to fear and greed. Investing with consistency and rational observations of what is going on in the economy has always paid dividends. It was true then, and it remains true today.

Listen to the Van Wie Financial Hour every Saturday morning at 10 AM on WBOB in the Jacksonville market, or through your computer or mobile device on TuneIn Radio.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is probably the best known index for tracking the United States stock market. The purpose of the index is to represent the United States economy by tracking the 30 largest companies based in the US. When it was first created it followed companies that were considered to be the backbone of the US economy. This sounds logical at first glance because the success of the largest companies in the US somewhat represent the success of the US economy. However, there are a few things about the Dow Jones that make it less than a perfect representation, and dare we say it, an irrelevant index.

The first issue is that the companies in the Dow may be based in the United States, but many of them make a good portion of their profits overseas. This wouldn’t be an issue if the Dow Jones was meant to represent the worldwide economy, but it isn’t. The Dow intends to represent the United States economy, and companies like Coca-Cola and McDonalds are misleading as much of their profits come from outside the United States.

The next issue, and the biggest, is how Dow index is calculated. The weight each company has on the index is based on stock price rather than market cap. To clarify, the stock price is the value of a single share of stock on the market. The market cap, or market value, is the stock price times the number of shares outstanding. This is an issue. Let’s say Company A has 100,000 outstanding shares at $100 each. The market value of Company A is then $10 million. Now, Company B has 1 million shares at $50 each. Because of that stock price, Company A has twice as much weight in the Dow than Company B, but Company B is valued at $50 million while Company A is only valued at $10 million. Due to this price weighted index, the smaller company’s movement in stock price is going to affect the index more than the larger companies!

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a valuable index when looking at the market, but only when compared to a base value. As of 6/1/2018 Boeing has the highest stock price on the DJIA priced at $353.04 with 583 million shares outstanding. This represents a market value of 205.7 billion dollars. If the stock price increases by 10% the Dow will increase by about 1%. Cisco, another Dow component, has a market value of $205.8 billion, but a stock price of only $42.72, due to its 4.8 billion outstanding shares. If this stock price were to increase by 10%, the Dow would only increase 12 basis points. These companies are almost the exact same size, but since the Dow is a price-weighted index, the larger priced stock has a significantly greater effect.

Now what would happen if we took the company with the greatest market value and increased its stock price by 10%? Apple has the greatest market value at $948.6 billion but the stock price is only at $186.96. A 10% move would only increase the Dow by 53 basis points. For a company that is more than twice as large to have half the effect on the index is proof enough that the Dow is a flawed index.

Everyone has an all-time favorite movie. Although it may be a difficult selection, the one that has withstood the test of time for me is Casablanca. I first saw it in the late 1960’s as the free movie on the University of Wisconsin campus in Madison. Being a financially struggling UW student in the 1960s and 1970s had a few benefits.

If this seems like a strange opening for a financial blog, stay with me. This is being written in response to Friday’s release of the monthly job creation reports by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov). To paraphrase Claude Rains (police chief “Louis” in Casablanca,) people were “Shocked, SHOCKED” to find such great job creation going on here in the USA.

So it goes, it seems, every month of the current Administration, when economic numbers have generally blown away the estimates of the “experts.” These so-called experts seem truly surprised by the numbers, whether for new jobs, unemployment, GDP, Consumer Confidence, etc. Why aren’t these economic and media “know-it-alls” expecting good numbers? Could the explanation be as simple as to say that they are letting their politics get in the way of reality? (That is basically a rhetorical question.)

For decades I have complained that our educational system has excluded several important fundamentals. One of the casualties has been basic economics, which is critical to good decision-making in everyday life. The resulting informational vacuum presents itself in the mainstream media on a consistent basis.

Since the election of 2016, in which an outsider (“non-swamp dweller”) was elected President, the US economy has flourished. Of course, it has! Anyone trained in classical economics understands that cutting taxes, deregulating businesses, and equalizing international trade is a formula for success. The under-educated and politically-biased media simply do not seem to understand. Or, it may be that they simply don’t care to understand.

There is a large segment of American society who seem to stay willfully ignorant. Data and information that doesn’t fit their narrative is ignored if possible, or acknowledged with exaggerated surprise if not.

That needs to change for people who want to be successful investors. Since the preponderance of data and information we receive is incomplete or downright inaccurate, every investor bears his or her own burden of responsibility.

Bringing the point home to investors is really pretty simple. Markets are primarily driven by business conditions in the country. Investors who ignore the facts do so at their own peril. Seasoned citizens probably recognize the current parameters of economic health from prior periods of prosperity, including the Reagan era. Today’s economics, including job creation, should come as no surprise. Politics, meet economics. Investments, meet prosperity.

If President Trump is a fan of Casablanca, he might say, “Louis, I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship.” America, welcome to escalating prosperity. It surprises us not at all. Always remain skeptical of the motives in the media, and you will be happier and more prosperous. Instead, listen to the Van Wie Financial Hour for a better understanding of why prosperity has returned to the USA.

One final note – How good is it out there? It is so good that the New York Times (no friend of this Administration) actually published this sub-headline regarding the job market; “We Ran Out of Words To Describe How Good It Is.”

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On a recent Van Wie Financial Hour, and also in a recent Blog, we have discussed the topic of small business financing for startup and growth. Years ago, money was plentiful, entrepreneurs were able to fund their startups from individuals or local banks, and regulations favored growth and expansion for small businesses. Over time, regulations have become more onerous, startups diminished, and a large portion of entrepreneurial spirit has gone unsatisfied. Such a shame, I believe, as evidenced by statistics showing that for the past few years, business failures actually exceeded startups.

How many times have we heard the term, “The New Normal?” Do you accept that? I do not. Stifling an economy through increased taxation and regulation has only two possible results; economic stagnation, and/or recession. In recent decades, we have experienced both. It has become a pervasive and universal problem. In my opinion, it can be attributed to a simple cause; too much government.

President Trump campaigned on a simple economic premise; deregulating and reducing taxes on the business community. We are well into year two of implementing those concepts, and the results are clear. It works every time it is tried.

Everyone knows the adage, most often attributed to Albert Einstein, that insanity is doing the same thing over and over, while expecting different results. Nowhere is this more applicable than in government regulation. Financially, regulation is a strangler of economic activity. More regulation makes things worse, not better.

Why, then, do so many people believe that cutting taxes and reducing regulation will not lead to economic growth and prosperity? After all, every time it was tried, growth and prosperity resulted. Yet resistance is commonplace and widespread. It has taken a Washington outsider (Trump) to revive the basic concepts of economic growth.

The numbers are coming in; it is working. Economic growth is accelerating, unemployment is dropping to record low levels, and tax revenue is rising, reflecting increased economic activity. In short, America is once again prospering.

This past week, a giant step was quietly taken by the Administration to further deregulate financial institutions. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act was passed by Congress in a knee-jerk reaction to the financial crisis of the prior decade. President Trump signed an easing of this onerous law last Thursday. The result will be added prosperity, brought about largely by the ability of local financial institutions to finance business startups and growth. While a total repeal of Dodd-Frank would be helpful, this is a good start. The Administration is promising further rollbacks in Dodd-Frank-based regulations.

As Americans, we remember tax cuts, and we remember deregulation. We also remember the prosperity that ensued. We are currently enjoying the results of the current Administration’s policies. Help for small business, job growth, and economic prosperity is on the way.

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