Joey Loss 0:01

All right, welcome back to another episode of Wealth Unplugged. This is where we unpack what's going on in these action-packed markets every couple of weeks. Today is Friday, May 15th, and my name is Joey Loss.

Adam Van Wie 0:15

And I'm Adam Van Wie.

Joey Loss 0:17

So Adam, two weeks ago we were talking a lot about corporate profits. I want to talk some more about that today and add some extra color, but Dare I say it feels like a pretty healthy bull market at the moment. What do you think?

Adam Van Wie 0:32

Yeah, it sure does. I mean, it is, I think, defied most expectations as far as year-to-date performance, especially with everything that's gone on this year and the really steep bounce back from the drawdown after we went to war with Iran. It's definitely been a V-shaped recovery. And then some. And so I am, I think, along with many other investors, very pleased with where things sit today. And the outlook is certainly a lot better than it was even as short as a month ago.

Joey Loss 1:10

Yeah, I mean, it's crazy how quickly things change. I already feel used to the bull market again. And like 4 weeks ago, I was concerned.

Adam Van Wie 1:19

Definitely.

Joey Loss 1:20

It's just Crazy how quickly that happens.

Joey Loss 1:24

To give some color to the performance underlying what we're saying, the S&P is now up 8.3% for the year. And I ran this just a little bit ago after today's kind of dismal open. The NASDAQ's up almost 15% on the year, which is crazy to say. The Dow is a little sleepy, but still positive at just over 3%. Small caps are doing a good job at 13%. Developed internationals about 6%. Emerging markets are having a great year, almost 19%. Gold and silver still chugging along positive so far year to date, although I saw silver was down quite a bit today, but that's just how silver's behaving lately. Bitcoin is down 10% year to date. And to no shock for any listener, I'm sure oil is up. American oil is up 80% and Brent crude, the international marker for oil, is up also just under 80%, which we all feel at the gas pumps.

Adam Van Wie 2:24

No doubt about it. If you don't, you must drive an EV.

Joey Loss 2:29

Yeah, right.

Joey Loss 2:32

And so notably this week, we had the BLS inflation report released. I think we all knew it was going to be a little bit higher. And they said the year over year for April was 3.8%, which is indeed higher than it was.

Adam Van Wie 2:46

Yep, definitely. I was actually kind of pleasantly surprised to the downside. I thought it would be a bit worse after, uh, I'm looking at the oil print right now at $126. So, um, again, I think these things take some time to really creep in. The sooner oil comes back down, the better. The, the longer it stays high, the long, the more inflationary effects it will have. Throughout the supply chain.

Joey Loss 3:16

Can you expand on that a little bit? Like what makes a short-term oil shock transitory versus a long-term oil shock more permanent?

Adam Van Wie 3:25

Yeah, I think there's a lot of reasons that that can happen, but short-term, there's a lot of things that companies can do as long as supply isn't too constrained for oil to sort of pass along costs. Like you'll see fuel surcharges in different industries and things like that. And those are temporary measures that just cover the cost of oil and, or, or gas or, or transportation costs. And as soon as that cost goes away, those fuel surcharges go away. So that's not really inflationary, that's a temporary price increase. But if the price of oil gets up and stays up, and especially if there's supply constraints, that does become more permanently ingrained in the cost of doing business. And you're not going to see those costs come back down when the price of oil inevitably comes back down. Because if you look at the history of oil, there's always been ups and downs and, and that, that is just the nature of a commodity like that. And so the longer it stays up, my fear is the more inflationary effects, long-term inflationary effects it will have on a lot of different, almost everything really.

Joey Loss 4:37

Yeah, I share that fear. I think we were in a meeting together this week with a client and talking about how Oil can impact the cost of fertilizer. And when fertilizer stays up, farmer costs are higher. And so farmers have to charge more for potatoes and corn and all the things that we eat. And once that ripples through to the grocery stores, it's very hard to unwind that. And that really is what separates it from the surcharge that comes and goes from your Amazon purchase, as you said.

Adam Van Wie 5:02

Yeah. And also, I know this sounds weird and probably counterintuitive, but you kind of don't want it to unwind. What we don't want to see is deflation. Deflation is more harmful to the overall economy than inflation, a small amount of inflation. Now, large inflation is very harmful. Deflation is signs of a weakening economy and nobody wants that. It may sound great when you're trying to pay for groceries, but the fact is if we're seeing that, we're probably seeing job losses and wage deflation and things like that. And you really, that is, there's all sorts of harmful things that cause deflation. So root for the price of oil to come back down, but don't root for deflation.

Joey Loss 5:49

Yeah, you can root for, just to make it more confusing, you can root for a slowing of inflation.

Adam Van Wie 5:55

Yes, exactly. I think we all want the slowing to be lower. So 2%, great. 4%, not so great.

Joey Loss 5:56

Don't root for deflation.

Adam Van Wie 6:05

The good news is that we're still in this, like, in the range of that 3%, the long-term average. And so we've been under that quite a while. So if we can, if we can get the price of oil down quickly, I, that, that rate should come back down to that near that 3%. And there won't be a tremendous amount of damage, long-term damage done. Obviously short-term paying what, 80% more for gas or whatever it is right now, that, that's going to hurt. But that, as we all know, gas goes up and down and, and that would go away relatively quickly if the price of oil comes back down.

Joey Loss 6:41

Yeah, um, and one thing worth noting in that 3.8% release was that typically the BLS does a rent and housing audit like every 6 months and adds that to the calculation. Um, the last one was during the government shutdown, so there was a 1-year correction that went into this particular BLS inflation report that added quite a bit of pressure upwards because normally they added every 6 months. So that was a little extra heat. Obviously, gas is the big, you know, oil, gas is the headline.

Adam Van Wie 7:14

But just look at core, core inflation was a lot closer to 3%

Adam Van Wie 7:20

than 3.8%. And so core strips out the volatile food and energy categories. And so that was much lower. So really, we're— it's pretty clear where this is coming from right now.

Joey Loss 7:33

Yeah.

Joey Loss 7:35

All right. So on corporate profits, I mean, last time we were raving about the 15% clip. I think now the data is showing 14%. You know, whatever. Those are both still great numbers.

Joey Loss 7:49

What's interesting is obviously indices are happy. We're seeing— I went through the numbers. Everything looks great. But if you look under the hood of the index,

Joey Loss 8:00

stock prices are not necessarily rising together. The breadth is going away. We, we had good breadth at the beginning of the year, which was exciting. We saw stocks aside from the Mag Seven doing a lot of the gains, which was a good departure from where we had been for the last several years where the Mag Seven were responsible for basically dragging the entire index up.

Joey Loss 8:23

But despite the fact that breadth is going away, fewer stocks are responsible for the rise of the market most recently. The profits are not spread that way. They're much broader. I don't really understand why that's happening other than maybe the idea is that it's just that we're back into a risk-on market and people are just looking back to growth stocks particularly. I mean, I think that's kind of what we're seeing under the hood with value versus growth. Is that a fair shake?

Adam Van Wie 8:53

Yeah, it's fair. But these things do switch often and there's not always a ton of rhyme or reason to it.

Adam Van Wie 9:05

We saw in the first quarter, we saw dividend stocks go crazy when the market was going down. One dividend fund that we owned was up about 13% in the first quarter when growth, our growth funds were down 5%, 6%, 7%. So

Adam Van Wie 9:23

this is a relatively new trend we're talking about over the course of a month and a half. Roughly where we're really seeing that. So I try not to get too caught up on what, on the minutia of what's happening over a short time period, but rather look over a longer time period. And also, this is a tough one too, because if you look at 2023 and 2024, those were great years and that's kind of the same trend that we saw. So it's not like you can't have good, uh, index performance when it's just the mega caps leading. You absolutely can. And we've proven that. I don't love it. I'm pretty sure you don't love it, but it's not the most damaging set of circumstances imaginable. Of course, I'd rather be where all— where the, you know, the rising tide lifts all boats. I'd much rather be there. But seeing the mega caps outperform again, I don't want to make it a warning sign either.

Joey Loss 10:24

Yeah, I think that's right. Well, in small caps, like I said, what are they up? 13% year to date. That's more than the S&P. It's almost with the NASDAQ. So it's really just a growing portion of the S&P 500, which again represents the 500 biggest companies in the American market.

Joey Loss 10:43

It's not just the mega caps, thankfully. This is better than what we saw those years where small caps did nothing.

Adam Van Wie 10:51

Yeah, no, I agree with that as well. It's, uh, that is better, but it still would rather see it, uh, the breadth perform better when we're this, when we're either at or near all-time highs.

Joey Loss 11:04

Yeah, okay, fair. So, so pin in the, in the breadth concern because it's short-term, and it is short-term. It's only been, what, 5 weeks of this recovery? Um, all right, so listeners could be wondering Like, how does the S&P justify all of a sudden a 26.9 trailing price-to-earnings ratio? Like, we went from way oversold 5 weeks ago, I think you were saying, everything's oversold, blah, blah, blah, to now we're pretty radically overbought in a lot of categories. How does that make sense? And I mean, I guess this— I'm kind of queuing it up because we just talked about the profit expansion, but—

Adam Van Wie 11:13

Yeah.

Adam Van Wie 11:40

That's really what's driving it. If the expectation is that profits will continue to expand and justify those future valuations, at some point, then it makes sense. It's only if you're looking at a snapshot of right now that it doesn't make sense. If you're, if you're saying 3 years from now we're going to continue these growth rates, then this is probably undervalued. But it just depends how you look at it and what your expectations are. And right now, clearly the market expectations are for profit expansion to continue for some period of time.

Joey Loss 12:16

Well, that's a good segue to the bond market because of the two, you know, equities are where all the excitement and short-term action is. Bond markets tend to move more slowly and you could say they have a little bit more maturity in their decision-making. And they seem to be agreeing that the profit earnings are here to stay because that is part of the storyline behind why rates are rising. I just think that's an interesting topic to talk about for a minute because I think in school and just in pop culture, when we're talking about, you know, 30-year government bonds and things of that nature, we always assume that the axis is based on risk. So the more risk we think there is, the more bonds have to pay to get you to buy them. And this market is showing that that's not the only factor. The other factor is if stocks are getting all of this risk premium, And the forward-looking growth rate expectations are so dramatic, bonds then have to compete because they want the same investor dollars that those stocks are demanding. And so that's another reason that bond yields for governments might actually go up, which isn't necessarily related to risk at all. It's just they got to compete. And if they're offering 3%, but stocks are ripping at 15% corporate, profit expansion a year, who's going to buy a bond? I just thought that was interesting. I don't know if I've seen as acute an example of the other forces as this moment.

Adam Van Wie 13:46

Yeah, I think the only thing more difficult than predicting the movement, direction, price action on a stock is trying to figure out rate yields in the bond market because this is not what anyone thought was going to happen in the bond market. We just are coming off a really great year for bonds. A lot of the bond indexes did 7-ish% last year. And the expectation for most of the industry was that this year would look somewhat similar because we had had such a terrible run for bonds and suddenly everything looked normal in 2025. Okay. And the yield curve was un-inverting.

Adam Van Wie 14:28

Just everything kind of pointed to getting back to some normalcy in the bond market. And here we are. 5 months into this year and it looks nothing like last year and it's doing the opposite of what everyone thought. If you try and predict rates in the bond market, it's just like trying to time the stock market. You're just not going to get it right.

Joey Loss 14:50

Yeah. Yeah, definitely agree. Yeah, bonds are just impossible. And the other, the other element of that, you know, we talk about it from the investor perspective, but lenders are looking at this AI CapEx that's just going crazy capital expenditure to build out the infrastructure for AI, creating all these profits. The expansion seems to be working. We're seeing legitimate profits come through at all levels of companies, including small business, which I would argue is part of why the Russell's looking good, is small companies can suddenly do more with more margin. Definitely. And so lenders are saying, well, heck, if it's that valuable to you, you'll pay more. To borrow and get access to it and do your CapEx and all of that. And so the lending side is also part of that market. It's not just bonds issuers saying, okay, we need to be competitive with equities, so we have to raise the reward to get people to buy our bonds. It's also lenders saying, hey, give me more money. I know you'll pay it because the profits are there.

Adam Van Wie 15:51

Yeah. As long as all lenders are like that and there isn't some split on that where some are trying to undercut and grab more market share. Which I'm sure happens also.

Adam Van Wie 16:03

But yeah, if the overall feeling of lenders is I need more of a premium because otherwise I could just buy some stocks and make all this money, then yeah, I can completely see why that would happen.

Joey Loss 16:15

Yeah. And I guess in a way, you know, this is healthy for the yield curve. We've had this inverted yield curve for years, which people say is a sign of trouble ahead. But if rates are going up at the long end, 30 years, and potentially at the 10-year end, then we're moving more towards normalcy. Am I thinking about that the right way?

Adam Van Wie 16:37

Yeah, yeah, definitely. The yield curve actually looked at the end of last quarter, looked about as good as we've seen it in 2, 3 years. So yeah. And the funny thing is that's like the bond market giving the all-clear signal. And it came right in the middle of the Iran war. Like, yeah, really? Right now is when everything's getting good. I don't know. It seems bizarre, but that's, that's how it shook out.

Joey Loss 17:03

Yeah. Well, speaking of rates, we've got Kevin Walsh was just confirmed for the Federal Reserve.

Joey Loss 17:11

And I don't really have a sense of what he's going to do. Obviously, the inflation report came out higher. Historically, he's been okay with being hawkish at times, but Trump chose him and Trump's been demanding lower rates. Do you have any sense of what this moment and Kevin Warsh means for short-term rates?

Adam Van Wie 17:28

I do have a sense that I don't envy his job. I would not want to be in that position because talk about being stuck between a rock and a hard place. I don't know what he's going to do. And I don't know what the right answer is either. It's a, it's a really tough job. If you thought Powell was in a pickle with being Trump's enemy, I almost would prefer that role. Than being where Kevin is now, supposed to be his ally, because— or that's like, I don't think that's actually true. I think he's pretty independent, but that's the overall perception of the media, at least.

Adam Van Wie 18:08

It's just, it's a terrible position to be in. He's got to maintain independence. And in his congressional statements, he was he was pushing that he was going to stay independent, which is absolutely the right thing to do. But there's just this perception that he's an ally to Trump and that's why he's there. And so what happens if he doesn't do— doesn't cut rates? I don't know.

Joey Loss 18:38

Yeah, I don't know either. You know, and there's talk about whether Jay Powell is going to be on the board for long or if he's kicked off or what. But I guess it'd be interesting if he keeps him as a punching bag. Just because Jerome made me do it.

Adam Van Wie 18:51

Yeah.

Adam Van Wie 18:54

Look, I wanted to lower rates, but yeah, Powell just wouldn't go away.

Joey Loss 19:00

Yeah. Now I guess time will tell. I do think, you know, whether you like or don't like Trump, Kevin Walsh was not the most immature decision that he could have made for his own benefit. I mean, Kevin Hassett, the other Kevin, was another option. And Kevin Hassett was basically like, have your way with me. Like, I'll do whatever you want. And that would have been a disaster. I don't care if you wanted rates to go down, that kind of personality and that important a role, not a good fit. So I think Warsh was the more mature decision.

Adam Van Wie 19:35

I actually think he's a great pick. If you can strip politics out of it and just remove your personal feelings, I mean, the guy was very well respected by both sides of the aisle for a long time. And, um, there's a reason for that. He, he just, he, he has a great track record, and I, I, I am optimistic that he will do a good job. I think, again, I would not want that job. I think it's an impossible job, especially right now, but I think he will at least do his best to do a great job. I, I just think that there wasn't a better option out there.

Joey Loss 20:10

Yeah, agreed. All right. So turning now towards like broader current events, obviously the Strait of Hormuz is something that people have read in their feed 100 times for the last, whatever, 50 days.

Joey Loss 20:26

It kind of, from a market perspective, Bespoke, our, like, probably our top research source for market activity, is starting to shift its analysis of the Strait of Hormuz from a crisis to a managed risk. And just because the market seems to be doing that, I mean, we're not seeing these headlines moving the market 6, you know, 4 to 6% a day anymore. It's kind of like, is there a little bit of good news? Market goes up. Is there a little bit of bad news? Market goes down. But also things that those movements are happening independent of whatever the day's storyline is in the Strait of Hormuz. So that's just a notable departure from where we've been.

Adam Van Wie 21:11

Yeah, and I can't figure out, is the market saying that we're going to figure this out in the next 6 weeks,

Adam Van Wie 21:20

or is it just that we're going to deal with high oil prices for a while and then it'll subside? I'm not exactly sure what the expectation is, but you're right. We're seeing a lot more reaction to earnings news than we are to geopolitical news, at least in the last 4 or 5 weeks.

Joey Loss 21:40

Yeah. And I think part of that is because the price action on oil has gotten linear. It's not in shock territory anymore. So I think, you know, how many times did you see the article a month ago that was like, oh, if oil hits $138 a barrel and stays there for 2.5 days and 17 minutes, then we're screwed. You know, that's gone. They're not doing that anymore. So I think that

Joey Loss 22:07

just the absence of true disaster for some extended period of time has made people look in other directions.

Adam Van Wie 22:15

Yeah, definitely. I think that it isn't very dissimilar from the Ukraine story. When Ukraine first happened, we saw the market react and go down as it always does. But as that war dragged on and on, I mean, it's such an afterthought at this point, but really, has anything changed in Ukraine? Not really. It's been the same story for a couple of years now, but you're just not seeing any reaction whatsoever. And that's actually quite a common trend with, with wars and political type events like this. There, there is an initial reaction and then there is the normalization of it over a long period of time.

Joey Loss 23:00

Yeah. Yeah. And I don't know if I'm giving you flowers or giving me flowers, but somebody, one of us brought that up right when it started. We talked about how it feels like the end of times, but it just, the market just doesn't care. And not because it doesn't care about the people or any of the humanity elements of a conflict. At the end of the day, if profits are clipping 15%, the market's just not going to care. It's not there to care about that.

Adam Van Wie 23:29

You're not buying a company because the leadership cares about what's happening in some other part of the world. You're buying it because it has solid cash flows that can sustain dividend payments and, you know, and growth and reinvestment in the company. And so it's just not really part of the equation, although it feels like it for that initial reaction period.

Joey Loss 23:55

For sure. Um, and then the last thing that I had on my list today, I guess it's two, last two things. One, I want to talk about healthcare, which has just kind of stunk this year. Have you been following that?

Adam Van Wie 24:08

Yeah, it's been really bad.

Joey Loss 24:11

What is the deal?

Adam Van Wie 24:12

What's the deal with healthcare?

Adam Van Wie 24:17

I'm not sure exactly what's driving that. It has been, it has been notable how bad it's been relative to the rest of the market though.

Adam Van Wie 24:29

Healthcare in the long term has been a great investment. And part of that is just the inflation in healthcare is way higher than general inflation and was even through the 0% inflation years. And so when you see inflation like that, that's just going to naturally increase margins. And I think that that drove a lot of the performance.

Adam Van Wie 24:54

I think there's just so much scrutiny on healthcare right now. That's, that's part of it. That scrutiny drives uncertainty.

Adam Van Wie 25:04

That, that margin expansion that they have seen over the last 15 years and the costs relative to the affordability factor, I think is, is playing into that as well. People are really worried that the government's going to get more involved, not less involved. That's going to drive prices higher. And that is not a political statement. I don't care what party's in power. The more a government gets involved in anything, the higher the prices go. And I think that that would not be good for the industry either, necessarily. So, um, I think there's a combination of things that are making people a little bit scared to put their money in healthcare companies.

Joey Loss 25:43

Yeah, I think that's fair. It'll be interesting to watch what happens there because healthcare, you know, everybody who's an expert in AI seems to be saying healthcare is ripe for disruption in a very positive way. With AI.

Adam Van Wie 25:55

Yes. That's true as well.

Joey Loss 25:58

I don't think it'll be very appreciated by those working in the admin sectors of healthcare, which is a huge source of jobs for people. So that'll be tough. But we'll just have to see.

Adam Van Wie 26:10

But honestly, that is, I mean, yes, I am, I feel bad for people that are working in that sector. Honest, but it needs so much work. It's so rife with, well, we've seen some of the fraud, but that's not even the biggest thing. The errors in billing, who hasn't had an experience where you've had a billing error and how frustrating was getting that resolved? It's just so common. I don't know anyone who hasn't been through this. And in some cases, it's ended up with, like, people getting their credit destroyed because they are disputing a healthcare charge that they legitimately shouldn't have to pay. But the company doesn't— can't figure out how to get it resolved and sends them to collections. And it's just— it is such a nightmare. There's just so much opportunity there for AI and efficiency gains, I guess.

Joey Loss 27:07

Yeah, I think it'd be a net good for society and healthcare costs, which, which it just kills people and families and the elderly, the costs of going to healthcare. And all of those costs contribute to that price you pay. So definitely, hopefully it's positive over the long term. And to prove your point, what, would you get two healthcare bills yesterday for the same thing and one was past due and one not.

Adam Van Wie 27:30

They arrived at my house on the same day and then I logged in the system. They were both already paid. I didn't even tell you the end of that story. So I got a, I got one that was like, this is due. And then same day, different envelope. This is past due. Log in that, that day and it's already paid. Wow.

Joey Loss 27:50

Yeah. Efficiency opportunity. I think we'll leave it there. Um, and then, so something that's coming up more. People are starting to ask a lot about the SpaceX IPO. I think we're expecting an S-1, which is the IPO filing from SpaceX, any day now. But we've started to have people call us saying, hey, I work at SpaceX, I have stock, this is going to be a crazy life event for me, which for a lot of people working at a company like SpaceX and getting and having an IPO is probably the biggest, one of the biggest financial events of your life.

Adam Van Wie 28:23

I mean, I would guess that it, yeah, I think if you're fortunate enough to be in that position, it most likely will be the largest financial event of your life. I mean, that is the biggest IPO of the year. That's why we're getting so many calls about it. It's on everybody's radar, whether you love Elon, hate Elon, doesn't matter. This is a big deal for public markets. Yeah.

Joey Loss 28:49

Yeah, my comment about the biggest event, just to be clear, is not like you got to buy this or it's not the biggest. That's not what that advice— no, no.

Adam Van Wie 28:56

In fact, it could be, it could be extremely overvalued, right? I mean, there's no telling.

Joey Loss 29:01

Look back at Snapchat. Not that SpaceX and Snapchat have a lot in common, but Snapchat just stunk from the day it debuted and ever since.

Adam Van Wie 29:10

Facebook, Facebook didn't go up right away. It went down and then it went up. So yeah, this is not uncommon. And actually, you can make the argument that if a If an IPO just takes off after it goes public, that the, the owners of the company did a, did not handle their fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders correctly because they underpriced the IPO versus what the public perception of the value was. So it really shouldn't happen. That is, everyone wants it to happen because they think it'll be great if I buy it right after IPOs and I make a ton of money. Great. but there is a little bit of an argument that you are not doing your fiduciary duty.

Joey Loss 29:52

Yeah. Yeah. It's, uh, when it comes to something like SpaceX, which we're just not going to see a lot of, I mean, the next one we might see is what Anthropic or OpenAI.

Adam Van Wie 30:02

I mean, just these big one.

Joey Loss 30:03

Yeah. Yeah. Um, but yeah, it's just crazy to me how big these companies are getting before they go public.

Adam Van Wie 30:10

I mean, there, there's talk that that SpaceX will be a multi-trillion-dollar company when it IPOs potentially? And Anthropic for sure, or almost for sure?

Joey Loss 30:22

I think someone said it would be the 7th largest company in the Qs.

Adam Van Wie 30:27

Geez.

Joey Loss 30:28

On day 1.

Adam Van Wie 30:29

That's insane.

Joey Loss 30:31

And then we were listening to another podcast that said if Anthropic continues its insane revenue growth rate, it would be the biggest company in the world 18 months from now, and it's not even close.

Adam Van Wie 30:43

Which that seems hyperbolic, but you can also make a not crazy case that it's true. Yeah.

Joey Loss 30:49

I mean, what Claude can do is incredible

Joey Loss 30:53

and I get it. I mean, it's hard to argue against the cost for what it can do if it makes sense for your business or personally.

Adam Van Wie 31:02

Yeah. The shoes I would not want to be in right now are ChatGPT. It seems to be losing the war. Um, and that doesn't mean they can't recapture the lead, but right now it certainly seems like they are not going to be the winner in all of this.

Joey Loss 31:21

Yeah. Well, it's funny how they, there's different facts. So if we're just looking at who's got a great product, the winner constantly changes. I think 3 years ago, we all thought we were looking towards the end of Google. By we all, I mean analysts were saying that. And then Google came out of nowhere with Gemini and then became the top player. And then OpenAI and Gemini were fighting a little bit, Google Gemini. And then now Anthropic has just surged as the leader. And the thing that they have killed it with is their monetization system is just better and smarter. It does a better job of capturing revenue for Anthropic. In a way that like as a customer, you're just like, well, I'm using it, I got to pay it and it's worth it.

Adam Van Wie 32:07

Yeah, because the value I'm getting is more than what they're asking to pay. So it's just a good investment.

Joey Loss 32:14

Yeah.

Joey Loss 32:16

Yeah. So anyhow, that was it. As far as interesting callouts, I always check like the search intent pulse, like what are people Googling lately as far as personal finance, market stocks like that. Big one was Strayhorn Moose. We covered that. Oil price, we talked about that. And then SpaceX IPO is just going through the roof. No surprise.

Adam Van Wie 32:39

Yeah. And we did get our first potential new client come and say they found us on an AI search. So it may have happened before that, but that was interesting. If you don't think AI is going to be a part of your life going forward, you may want to rethink that.

Joey Loss 32:54

Yeah. Yeah. It's interesting. Just how quickly this is all changing.

Joey Loss 33:00

But anyhow, any other closing thoughts for now?

Adam Van Wie 33:04

Yeah, the market's really been ripping and I'm sure there are some of you out there that are looking at that and saying, "Man, I need to get more in there." And some of you are saying, "Man, it's too high, it's gotta come back down." And the answer is neither of those things is true. One of them will be, but we don't know which one it is. So again, I just urge people to be long-term investors, not traders. Buy and hold and don't let short-term events dictate your next move. You will trade yourself out of profits every time.

Joey Loss 33:36

Yeah. And definitely don't look at strategists for wisdom because if I walked through how they've updated their numbers, they've been perfectly wrong at the perfect times throughout this year so far.

Adam Van Wie 33:48

Yeah, exactly right. When the, when things turned around, didn't we put out a podcast and we noted that someone had just lowered their S&P forecast that day? And then the market ripped for 5 weeks.

Joey Loss 34:01

Same thing happened last year around the tariffs, like JPMorgan or somebody. I don't want to accuse them. Somebody, any of the big banks, pick your favorite. They dropped it to like 2% for the year. And then what do we end up with? 20-something.

Adam Van Wie 34:16

It's just, it's as predictable a trend as just about anything.

Joey Loss 34:20

Yeah. All right, cool. Well, we'll come back on here in a couple of weeks and see what's changed. We're never short for things to talk about.

Adam Van Wie 34:28

Yeah, thanks for having me on, Joey.

Joey Loss 34:30

Thanks, Adam.